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12/08/2020

Housing Booming, Despite Employment Lagging

Stats through October continue year-long trend

Employment

The United States lost 9.1 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 6.0%. In the last month, 1.6 million jobs were gained, increasing by 1.1%.

The Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, lost 2.00 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 5.9%. In the last month, 271.3 thousand jobs were gained, increasing by 0.9%.

The state of Ohio lost 351.9 thousand jobs over the past year, decreasing by 6.3%. In the last month, 57.9 thousand jobs were gained, increasing by 1.1%.

Housing Supply

Nationwide, the number of housing starts rose by 4.9% over the month of October 2020 to 1,530,000. Single-family starts rose by 6.4% to 1,179,000. Multifamily starts were unchanged at 351,000 at 351,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 14.2%. Single-family starts are up by 29.4% but multifamily starts are down by 18.2%.

In the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, the number of housing starts rose by 3.3% over the month of October 2020 to 219,000. Single-family starts rose by 22.0% to 155,000. Multifamily starts fell by 24.7% to 64,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 23.0%. Single-family starts are up by 33.6% and multifamily starts are up by 3.2%.

On a year-to-date basis, total permits over the past 12 months ending in October 2020 are up by 25.6% across the state of Ohio to 23,995. Single-family permits are up by 17.5% to 15,683 and multifamily permits are up by 44.5% to 8,312.

In Dayton total permits year-to-date are up by 0.7% to 2,021. Single-family permits are up by 3.7% to 1,927.

Housing Prices

Nationwide, house prices grew by 1.6% over the third quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices across the country rose by 4.7%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2011, house prices in the US were 18.4% below their second quarter of 2007 peak level. Currently, house prices are 22.2% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the East North Central Division, a component of the Midwest Region which includes the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.9% over the third quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the Division rose by 4.5%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2012, house prices in the East North Central Division were 16.6% below their fourth quarter of 2006 peak level. Currently, house prices in the East North Central Division are 15.9% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 2.3% over the third quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the state rose by 5.7%. At its low, reached in the fourth quarter of 2012, house prices in Ohio were 12.9% below their third quarter of 2005 peak level. Currently, house prices in Ohio are 20.8% above their boom-related peak level.

Builder Sentiment

According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market nationally rose by 5 points to 90 over the month of November 2020. Over the past year, the HMI has risen by 19 points from 71 in November 2019. Any value above 50 means more builders are seeing improvement rather than decline. The HMI fell to a low of 8 in January 2009.

Sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market in the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, rose by 9 points to 85 over the month of November 2020. Over the past year, builder sentiment in the Midwest Region has risen by 27 points from 58 in November 2019. Builder confidence in the Midwest Region fell to a low of 6 in December 2008.

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