Complete Story
 

08/18/2020

Eye on the Economy

Employment

The United States lost 13.2 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 8.7%. In the last month, 5.1 million jobs were gained, increasing by 3.8%.

The Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, lost 3.00 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 9.1%. In the last month, 1.3 million jobs were gained, increasing by 4.3%.

The state of Ohio lost 547.4 thousand jobs over the past year,decreasing by 9.7%. In the last month, 214.8 thousand jobs were gained, increasing by 4.4%.

Housing Supply

Nationwide, the number of housing starts rose by 17.3% over the month of June 2020 to 1,186,000. Single-family starts rose by 17.2%  to 831,000. Multifamily starts rose by 17.5%  to 355,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are down by 4.0%. Single-family starts are  down by 3.9% and multifamily starts are down by 4.1%.

In the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, the number of housing starts rose by 29.3% over the month of June 2020 to 181,000. Single-family starts rose by 28.4%  to 122,000. Multifamily starts rose by 31.1%   to 59,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are down by 0.5%. Single-family starts are unchanged   and multifamily starts are down by 1.7%.

On a year-to-date basis, total permits over the past 12 months ending in June 2020 are up by 15.5% across the state of Ohio to 12,282. Single-family permits are up by 3.7% to 7,968 and multifamily permits are up by 46.2% to 4,314.

In the Dayton region, total permits year-to-date are down by 11.6% to 1,075. Single-family permits are down by 7.9% to 1,031.

House Prices

Nationwide, house prices grew by 1.1% over the first quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices across the country rose by 5.0%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2011, house prices in the US were 18.4% below their second quarter of 2007 peak level. Currently, house prices are 20.9% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the East North Central Division, a component of the Midwest Region which includes the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.0% over the first quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the Division rose by 4.6%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2012, house prices in the East North Central Division were 16.7% below their fourth quarter of 2006 peak level. Currently, house prices in the East North Central Division are 14.6% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.5% over the first quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the state rose by 5.8%.  At its low, reached in the fourth quarter of 2012, house prices in Ohio were 12.9% below their third quarter of 2005 peak level. Currently, house prices in Ohio are 18.9% above their boom-related peak level.

Builder Sentiment

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market nationally rose by 14 points to 72 over the month of July 2020. Over the past year, the HMI has risen by 7 points from 65 in July 2019. Any value above 50 means more builders are seeing improvement rather than decline. The HMI fell to a low of 8 in January 2009.

Sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market in the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, rose by 18 points to 68 over the month of July 2020. Over the past year, builder sentiment in the Midwest Region has risen by 14 points from 54 in July 2019. Builder confidence in the Midwest Region fell to a low of 6 in December 2008.

 

Source: National Association of Home Builders Economics and Housing Policy Dept.

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