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05/13/2020

Economic Update through April

This overview was prepared by the Economics and Housing Policy Department of the NAHB.

Housing Supply

Nationwide, the number of housing starts fell by 22.3% over the month of March 2020 to 1,216,000. Single-family starts fell by 17.5%  to 856,000. Multifamily starts fell by 31.7%  to 360,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 1.4%. Single-family starts are up by 2.8%, but multifamily starts are down by 1.6%.

In the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, the number of housing starts fell by 21.5% over the month of March 2020 to 153,000. Single-family starts fell by 25.7%  to 107,000. Multifamily starts fell by 9.8%  to 46,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 15.9%. Single-family starts are up by 4.9%, and multifamily starts are up by 53.3%.

On a year-to-date basis, total permits over the past 12 months ending in March 2020 are up by 17.6% across the state of Ohio to 5,504. Single-family permits are up by 15.7% to 3,510, and multifamily permits are up by 21.0% to 1,994.

In the Dayton region total permits year-to-date are up by 29.7% to 669. Single-family permits are up by 0.8% to 503, and multifamily permits are up by 24.1% to 144.

 

Employment

The United States added 1.4 million jobs over the past year. Since reaching a low of 127.8 million in January 2010, total non-farm payroll employment, 150.8 million, is currently a pre-recession peak level of 139.5 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently 4.4%, 0.6 percentage point above its level one year ago, but 5.6 percentage points below its recession-era peak of 10.0%.

The Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, lost 088.6 thousand jobs over the past year. Since reaching a low of 29.07 million in January 2010, total non-farm payroll employment, 32.64 million, is currently 1.5%  above its pre-recession peak level of 32.16 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently 4.1%, 0.4 percentage point above its level one year ago, but 6.1 percentage points below its recession-era peak of 10.2%.

The state of Ohio lost 30.1 thousand jobs over the past year. Since reaching a low of 4.91 million in January 2010, total non-farm payroll employment, 5.50 million, is currently 0.8%  below its pre-recession peak level of 5.54 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently 5.5%, 1.4 percentage points above its level one year ago, but 5.6 percentage points below its recession-era peak of 11.1%.

 

House Prices

Nationwide, house prices grew by 1.6% over the fourth quarter of 2019, and over the past year, house prices across the country rose by 5.1%. At its low, reached in the second quarter of 2012, house prices in the US were 18.9% below their second quarter of 2007 peak level. Currently, house prices are 19.9% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the East North Central Division, a component of the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.8% over the fourth quarter of 2019, and over the past year, house prices in the Division rose by 5.0%. At its low, reached in the second quarter of 2012, house prices in the East North Central Division were 17.3% below their fourth quarter of 2006 peak level. Currently, house prices in the East North Central Division are 13.8% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 2.0% over the fourth quarter of 2019, and over the past year, house prices in the state rose by 5.5%.  At its low, reached in the second quarter of 2012, house prices in Ohio were 13.3% below their third quarter of 2005 peak level. Currently, house prices in Ohio are 17.4% above their boom-related peak level.

 

Builder Sentiment

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market nationally fell by 42 points to 30 over the month of April 2020. Over the past year, the HMI fallen by 33 points from 63 in April 2019. Any value above 50 means more builders are seeing improvement rather than decline. The HMI fell to a low of 8 in January 2009.

Sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market in the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, fell by 42 points to 25 over the month of April 2020. Over the past year, builder sentiment in the Midwest Region has fallen by 31 points from 56 in April 2019. Builder confidence in the Midwest Region fell to a low of 6 in December 2008.

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